Thursday, January 4, 2007

Nuclear Proliferation

One of the most redundant initiatives by the United Nations (UN) has been the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). A brief history: The NPT was enacted on July 1 1968 in order to contain the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. Succinctly, the doctrine is based upon three pillars. Firstly, signatory nations must abstain from developing, renewing or expanding their nuclear military programmes. Secondly, those nations possessing the offending technology must endeavour to completely disarm "under strict and effective international controls" and must abstain from "inducing any non-nuclear weapon states to acquire nuclear weapons". Finally, the Treaty affirms a nation's legitimate right to pursue peaceful nuclear power subject to international approval and transparency. There have since been other peripheral clauses added relating to nuclear technology embargos on non-ratifying nations; the most recent example of this concerns Australia's ambivalence on whether to export $100 million worth of Uranium to India.

Strictly ideological legislations are often based on unrealistic assumptions of behaviour. Indeed, they tend to mandate how a collective should behave rather than accommodate how the collective actually does behave. The NPT is one such example. The fundamental assumptions of the Treaty are that all regimes are rational and seek peace. Not particularly shrewd. Consider Israel's nuclear programme.

Israel's constitution (1948) stipulates "Yisrael muchanah lehoshit yad l'shalom l'shcheneya- Israel extends a hand of peace to her neighbours." To that end, Israel has made territorial concessions in order to normalize relations with two former adversaries, Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994). Israel has also made repeated attempts to negotiate peace with the Palestinians (1947, 1948, 1967, 1979, 1993, 2000). Presently, the state finds itself embroiled in existential (non-territorial) conflict.

Israel's nuclear capabilities (believed to have commenced in the 1950s) was motivated by necessity. Nevertheless, its nuclear monopoly within the Mideast and its refusal to ratify the NPT have been a point of contention among critics. Some of these concerns were baseless to begin with and others have been dispelled after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for the USA and Israel to be "wiped off the map" while concurrently pursuing nuclear technology.

Another indication of the NPT's sheer irrelevance is the absence of an enforcement clause (akin to the Kyoto Protocol). Curiously, a signatory nation is merely "bound by principle" to observe its obligations as per the Treaty. Member nations, among them; France, China, Russia and the UK continue to actively develop and test military nuclear technology, while the USA, which is poised to overhaul and upgrade its entire arsenal, regularly performs virtual nuclear tests using computer simulations. The lack of legal recourse and non-transparency creates a classic cartel scenario: In a climate of mistrust, each member seeks to gain an advantage by violating their obligations. An organic dissolution.

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